Will the housing market crash in 2026? Gen Z is rooting for it

2026年房地产市场会崩溃吗？ Z 世代对此表示支持

Yahoo Personal Finance 美股 🕐 2024-07-05 10:00

2026年房地产市场会崩溃吗？

Z 世代对此表示支持 Michele Lerner E. Napoletano · 撰稿人 Hal Bundrick，CFP® · 高级作家太平洋夏令时间 2026 年 8 月 18 日星期二中午 12:03 阅读 6 分钟 A 住房 m 阅读更多：想在 2026 年买房？

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Clever 表示，尽管 58% 的 Z 世代希望房地产市场崩盘，但专家们预计 2026 年不会出现崩盘。

如果说有什么不同的话，那就是在经历了多年的曲折之后，他们看到了更大的常态感。

霍华德汉纳房地产服务公司首席执行官霍比·汉纳 (Hoby Hanna) 在电子邮件中表示，“我们不会走向房地产崩盘；我们正处于稳定而不是波动的市场调整中”。

“今天的住房 en 阅读更多：了解住房库存及其如何塑造房地产市场根据 5 月份职位空缺和劳动力流动调查 (JOLTS)，职位空缺和雇用数量分别保持在 760 万和 520 万个不变，而总离职人数很少这是好消息：ADP 月度全国就业报告超出预期，私营部门在 2026 年 6 月增加了 98,000 个职位，薪资上涨ADP 首席经济学家内拉·理查森 (Nela Richardson) 在一份新闻稿中表示：“总体招聘稳定，但就业增长继续有利于包括医疗保健在内的某些行业。

”根据房地产数据公司 Cotality 的数据，2026 年 5 月美国房价年增长率为 0.8%，较 4 月份的 0.4% 有所加快。

Cotality 首席经济学家 Thom Malone 表示：“我们正处于销售和价格增长较低的时期，这反映了 20 世纪经济衰退期间收入和房价之间的脱节。

”房地产市场要崩溃，供需必须严重失衡，从而有利于供应。

虽然供应紧张，但差异并不像 2008 年那么严重。

截至 2026 年 5 月，房地产市场情报公司 CJ Patrick Co. 和 NAR 的创始人兼首席执行官里克·沙尔加 (Rick Sharga) 表示，“在买家和卖家之间正常的市场平衡中，我们的房屋供应量可以维持六个月”。

该公司还报告称，5 月份的负担能力有所下降，结束了连续八个月的改善。

与此同时，抵押贷款利率已回升至 6% 左右，远低于三年低点。

阅读更多：查看历史抵押贷款利率与当前利率的比较。

2007 年开始的房地产崩盘并导致了全球金融危机，这一问题继续困扰着许多经济学家和消费者。

但导致这次崩盘的因素是：“自 2007 年以来，贷款实践显着收紧，导致今天的情况与我们当时面临的情况截然不同，”Savvy Advisors 的财富顾问戴维·戈特利布 (David Gottlieb) 通过电子邮件表示。

任何人和所有人的低额甚至无文件抵押贷款和零首付的日子已经一去不复返了。

如今，贷款机构正在寻找愿意参与其中的买家。

洛威

📜 英文原文 (点击展开)

Despite 58% of Gen Z wanting a housing market crash, according to experts don't foresee one in 2026. If anything, they see a greater sense of normalcy following multiple years of twists and turns.

"We're not heading toward a housing crash; we're in a market correction defined by stability, not volatility," Hoby Hanna, CEO of Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, said via email. "Today's housing environment is fundamentally different from 2008. Homeowners have record levels of equity, lending standards are sound, and inventory remains constrained. What we're seeing now is a normalization, not a collapse, as the market adjusts to new economic realities. For buyers and sellers, this is a market filled with opportunity and resilience, not instability or uncertainty."

According to the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the number of job openings and hires were unchanged at 7.6 million and 5.2 million, respectively, while total separations were little changed at 5.1 million.

Here's the good news: The monthly ADP National Employment Report beat expectations with the private sector adding 98,000 jobs in June 2026, with pay up 4.4% year-over-year.

"Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care," Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP, said in a release. "In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers."

U.S. annual home price growth was 0.8% in May 2026, picking up the pace from 0.4% year-over-year growth in April, according to real estate data company

"We are in a period of low sales and price growth that mirrors the disconnect between incomes and home prices seen during 20th century recessions," Thom Malone, principal economist at Cotality, said in an analysis. "This time, however, the dynamics are reversed: rather than an economic collapse, a housing surge is waiting for the rest of the economy to catch up. While the 2026 spring homebuying season may spark some momentum, the most likely outcome is modest price growth as buyers and sellers remain at a standoff."

For the housing market to crash, supply and demand must be drastically out of balance, favoring supply. While supply is tight, the discrepancy isn't as drastic as it was in 2008. As of May 2026, the National Association of REALTORS® showed a housing supply of 4.5 months.

"In a normal market balanced between buyers and sellers, we would have a six-month supply of homes," said Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Co., a market intelligence firm for real estate and mortgage companies. For comparison, the buildup to the 2008 financial crisis led to a drastic oversupply — 13 months. That was more than double the average figure of six months."

NAR also reported that affordability declined in May, snapping an eight-month streak of improvement. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have climbed back into the mid-6% range, well off the three-year lows seen just before the Middle East conflict.

The housing crash that started in 2007 and contributed to the global financial crisis continues to weigh heavily on the minds of many economists and consumers. But the factors that led to that crash are not in place today. Not only are housing supply levels and home equity levels vastly different, but mortgages are a different animal as well.

"Lending practices have tightened significantly since 2007, making for a wildly different scenario today than we faced back then," David Gottlieb, a wealth advisor at Savvy Advisors, said via email.

Gone are the days of the low- to no-documentation mortgage and zero-down for anyone and everyone. Today, lenders are looking for buyers willing to put skin in the game. The lowest down payments are typically with , which offer 0% down, and , which offer down payments as low as 3.5%. Both loans still require income, asset, and employment verification.

With those subprime lending products gone and most requiring money down, today's homeowners also have significantly more home equity than those from the early 2000s. Today, the average American has just under $300,000 in home equity, and sellers can afford to cut prices to close a deal.

"When comparing the financial health of the consumer and banking industry between 2008 and today, we truly are looking at apples and oranges," Gottlieb said.

Whether you're or hoping to buy a new home, you may want to watch for signs of a future housing market crash. An economic shock, such as a significant stock market crash or a prolonged period of job cuts, could signal the start of a housing market crash.

If unemployment rose rapidly and homeowners couldn't afford their mortgage payments, they could if they couldn't sell them. A large increase in foreclosures would bring home values down, potentially triggering a housing crash.

"While a national housing crash remains very unlikely, every market is unique, and some are likely to see prices go down even as the national numbers are going up — probably not enough to designate it as a 'crash,' but enough to make a difference for some homeowners," Sharga said.

A housing crash is a mixed bag for home buyers. Crashes typically come with other economic undesirables, like job losses. Even if , increasing unemployment numbers could mean many Americans find it more difficult to qualify for a mortgage.

On the other hand, some home buyers could welcome a crash. Lower prices could mean those who have saved and are steadily employed have first dibs on more affordable housing.

In a housing crash, homeowners who don't need to sell may prefer to wait until home values regain their strength. Being — owing more on your mortgage balance than the value of your home — as many people were during the previous housing market crash, doesn't immediately impact your finances.

However, if you need to , you may need to consider more competitive pricing or offer Buyers in market crashes are looking for bargains, and you may end up with less profit on your home than you anticipated.

<strong>Buy within your budget. </strong>Whether the market crashes or not, it's always wise to have a .

<strong>Choose a fixed-rate mortgage.</strong> Enjoy a steady mortgage payment, and don't worry if rates increase — a is locked in, regardless of what happens in the real estate market.

While some markets have shown a slight decline, nationally, home prices are up only slightly so far this year. The most recent data from Cotality shows that annual home prices were up only 0.9% in January.